My Tech Predictions For 2013

Just for fun, I'm looking into my crystal ball and will make a few technology related predictions for 2013

Linux:

Ubuntu will continue to move away from the desktop, focusing more on servers, and reaching for the illusive tablet/smart phone market. It will continue to lose ground to Linux Mint and other Linux distributions.

Linux Mint is going to have a good year, continuing to gain ground on the desktop and Cinnamon will become a force by year's end. Mint Debian will continue to get little love, but a growing user base.

Fedora will be in decline because of its new installer and the buggy nature of the testbed OS. Redhat will stay strong, the other Redhat spins will keep their fans. Fuduntu will continue to impress.

Debian, the old Linux rock will remain strong, Wheezy will be its best ever release. It will gain new desktop fans and continue its popularity on servers.

SolusOS will either become the best Linux operating system in existence, or completely disappear.

Mepis, I suspect Mepis 12 will be the last release we see.

Desktops, MATE, Xfce, and KDE will continue to have fans and will grow more fans. LXDE will lose the spotlight for light desktops to E17. Cinnamon will be amazing. Unity will improve but still be unloved by Linux users. Gnome will try to right itself, but it will not shed its user hate in 2013.

Linux in general, Linus will continue to entertain us by cussing out people he thinks are idiots. Linux will be strong on just about everything except the desktop, will be continually important to Android, in appliances and electronic devices it will be in ever more use. Very small operating systems that run on sticks or cards you can plug into your TV or otherwise replace larger operating systems will become more popular, and new uses will be found for Linux in our everyday life in 2013.

Other:

Android will start to eat Apple for lunch. IOS will still be popular, but lose the spotlight of first place to Android.

Tablets in general will become the new user PC as desktop computers go into further decline. Smart phones and tablets will rule the future in personal computing.

Microsoft Windows will continue to become history as Windows 8 never fully takes off, too late MS will realize it is fighting the last war. Enterprise will move evermore to Apple, and perhaps Android if it can be made fully secure.

Ereaders will begin to see the season of decline. Ebooks will be more popular than ever, but one tablet rather than a tablet and a ereader will be the new norm for book lovers. Reader apps for tablets will be the important gateway to ebooks.

In general, by years' end we will see $99 tablets as the norm, and I'm not talking about the cheapo china tablets, but Kindle, Google, and Nook tablets among other leaders at $99. Apple will never try to match that price point so you see why I say Android will eat Apple's lunch in 2013.

Well my crystal ball may have it all wrong, so what are your predictions? Please comment below.

Of Tablets And Linux

Tablets are lighter and much more portable than laptop computers. Often they cost less than laptop computers. For the consumer who does email, Facebook, Twitter, and some web browsing, perhaps also enjoys the occasional movie and listening to music--the tablet computer is ideal.

I have used my daughter's iPad tablet, and I have owned a Kindle Fire, which I just gave to my wife, and more recently purchased an Acer A200 Iconia tablet. There is no doubt in my mind where computing is headed. The only two things I need my laptop for right now are word processing and the occasional photo editing. My desktop computer is a dinosaur that is mostly a glorified printing computer and usb charging station.

Recently Windows 8 operating system was released. It really holds no interest for me so I haven't tried it out. But I have been watching the reviews, and while it is generally hated as a desktop operating system, even its starch critics admit it isn't bad on a tablet, and that is enough to tell me that while Windows 8 may bomb in the short term, they at least are pointed in the right direction for long term computing.

Many Linux users have bashed Gnome Shell and Unity desktop for their tablet interfaces, and I have complained as well. But for the long game these may be the two Linux desktops with the most promise for the future. I have been thinking much about Linux as I use my tablet, wondering how it can fit in, or even if it does fit in, and I think it can.

We might acknowledge that Linux is already essentially on tablet computers as well as phones via the Android operating system built on the Linux kernel. And we might also essentially proclaim "game over" since Android will likely lead on both phones and tablets in the foreseeable future. But where will that leave the Ubuntu, Mint, Debian, Redhat, and other Linux based operating systems?

Here is what I have learned from my time on tablets, many of the Android apps suck. For email, Facebook, and most web sites, I would rather use the browser on Android than the crippled apps. For instance, you can't even archive emails using the Gmail Android app.The Android Facebook app just sucks, it is much easier to see everything on Facebook via the browser. Why would this matter to Linux? Because if you are doing nearly everything from a browser on a tablet anyway, why not use Linux? With Linux on a tablet and a good browser you will have pretty much everything necessary to do email, visit Facebook, browse the web.

But I can tell you that LXDE with its tiny icons, and KDE with its sophisticated settings, those interfaces are not going to work as well on tablet as say Unity with those big old ugly buttons, or Gnome Shell with its simplified and non-changeable interface. Interfaces that suck on a Linux run desktop computer, suddenly become golden on a Linux run tablet. I think Unity and Gnome Shell have a future on Linux tablets.

I think in a short period of time tablets are going to be so good, so useful, that they will quickly usurp the laptop computer. I can do 90% or more of what I need a computer to do, right now on a tablet. For others who don't do much word processing or other mouse-centered or keyboard-centered production work, there is no reason for them to be tied to a huge desktop computer or to lug around a laptop computer, a lightweight tablet will more than suffice.

We are perhaps in the "teen years" of tablets as they sort themselves out, improve their operating systems, find developers for their apps, and find the consumer "sweet spot" for both tablet size and features. But the writing is clearly on the wall. The smart phone can do much, but few people are going to watch movies or play games for long periods of time, much less read lots of text on a smart phone. The desktop computer will be in small demand, far less needed in the future. The laptop, I predict, will completely disappear in the tablet onslaught that's coming, for keyboards are cheap, easy to find, and the keyboard is the only excuse for a laptop's existence right now. As tablets improve and better accessories become available, including improved plug-in, removable keyboards, where will laptops fit in?

As someone who loves Linux and wants to see it thrive, I think the path ahead is clear, get on the freaking tablets and get on them now! Now is exactly the right time as Microsoft stumbles along, as Android picks up speed, and Apple continues to enslave the masses to its locked-in-world. Right now Linux needs to get its act together, improve its situation with ARM, find hardware vendors willing to experiment, improve its desktop interfaces, and lighten the load overall because bloat won't work on tablets. I think Debian pared down to bare bones and an improved gnome Shell interface along with some apps selected for the tablet user could be a winning combination. Perhaps Ubuntu stripped of its bloat with a Unity interface could shine on a tablet. But however it is done, the future is now, five years from now will probably be too late. I think Linux has one shot at this and the door will soon be closing. The year of the Linux desktop is gone, will the year of Linux on the tablet arrive?